Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.
A spook who somehow got onto the Trump transition team… how did that happen at all? I think he was spying FOR THE RUSSIANS (and maybe the DNC) to help get old easily manipulated Hillary “Re-set Button” Clinton elected! The entire premise of the Muh Russian conspiracy makes absolutely no sense. Why on earth would the Russians want POTUS Trump in the White House???
Investing in stock drives the production of better goods and services, but currency isn’t a commodity which will depreciate due to the nature of its own decay. It’s not a service which could lose its public appeal in a few years. Intellectual property is a closer metaphor, but a dollar will still never hold intrinsic value, ironically, unless it is one day viewed as an antique. Read More
This article considers the juxtaposition of colliding worldviews and the unified message that voters across the political spectrum are sending. While many investors are aware of the political change afoot, it seems that very few have considered how said changes might affect the economy and financial markets. In this article, we share some of our thoughts and encourage you to give the topic more consideration going forward. Read More
TheEconomiCollapse.com's Michael Snyder thinks so. For a very long time, Ron Paul has been one of my political heroes. His willingness to stand up for true constitutional values and to keep saying “no” to the Washington establishment over and over again won the hearts of millions of American voters, and I wish that there had been enough of us to send him to the White House either in 2008 or in 2012. To this day, I still wish that we could make his classic work entitled “End The Fed” required reading in every high school classroom in America. He was one of the few members of Congress that actually understood economics, and it is very sad that he has now retired from politics. With the enormous mess that Washington D.C. has become, we sure could use a lot more statesmen like him right now. Read More
It is unlikely that many were swayed by Meeker’s argument. The politicians certainly were not. However, the Senate investigation into Wall Street, intended to uncover the nefarious activities of the shorts, found little to go on. A list of 350 leading bear speculators presented to the committee contained only one familiar name…Having no luck with the bears, the investigation turned its attention to the bulls of yesteryear. This was much more fertile ground.
First, more NYSE stocks are bought on margin now than at any time since the 1950s, and Faber interprets this as a sign of overvaluation. Indeed, he finds that stock prices are "out of control," per Money, with the market P/E ratio nearly double its historical average. Once a selloff begins, Faber expects it to become an avalanche in which "asset holders will lose 50% of their assets [and] some people will lose everything," as Money quotes him.
In fact, there is remarkably little evidence of organized bear raiding on the U.S. market following the October Crash. In order to dispel the myths, the economist of the New York Stock Exchange, Edward Meeker, published a book, entitled Short-Selling, in 1932. Meeker claimed that bears had not precipitated the crash. In November 1929, the NYSE found that around one hundredth of one percent of outstanding shares had been sold short. A later study in May 1931 found the short interest had risen to 3/5 of one percent of the total market value. More than ten times as many shares were held on margin. Nor could the stock exchange identify any bear raids in the subsequent market decline.
In the S&P 500 chart below, you will see the long-term patterns going back to 1970. The "strategic number" is an algorithmic measure comprised of multiple factors which measure risk. When it is close to 100, risk is very high. When it is close to 0, risk is very low. In between, risk is about normal, and trend following can be employed. The "strategic risk range" shows the rough range that the market is likely to be in during the intermediate term.
Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 13 bps this week to 2.48%, the high going back to March. German bund yields rose 12 bps to 0.42%. U.S. equities have been reveling in tax reform exuberance. Bonds not so much. With unemployment at an almost 17-year low 4.1%, bond investors have so far retained incredible faith in global central bankers and the disinflation thesis.
A very long and unnecessarily drawn out novel which included too much detail about war planning and the various weapons used. U.S. casualties were unrealistically low. Author did not recognize the U.S. National Missile Defense system. Not believable that the Russians would allow the Chinese to retreat from their soil without retribution. I read the book to the end to find out what would happen; it held my attention. This book is not up to Clancy's past books for credibility.
Under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, municipal advisors gained an increasingly important role in overseeing financial and legal circumstances surrounding the issuance of bonds. The municipal advisor serves as a fiduciary for the municipal issue, taking care of all of the assets and finances involved in the issuance process. Legally, the advisor is obligated to represent the interests of the issuer and serve as a source of financial advice. This entails offering advice on structuring, selling, and promoting bonds, as well as serving as the central liaison between other members of the financial team, especially the underwriters and credit rating agency. Although municipal financial advisory services have existed for many years, municipal advisors have played a key role in the bond issuance process since the Securities and Exchange Commission enacted the Municipal Advisor rule in 2014, which prohibits certain communications between issuers and broker-dealers unless one of four exceptions is met, one being that the issuer has retained an Independent Registered Municipal Advisor ("IRMA").
CHECK OUT Buying Bitcoin is Like Buying Airhttps://youtu.be/XmMQAuO62gIAnother Round of Tax CutsNow the Republicans are talking about another round of tax cuts. Just in time for the November election. Whether or not these tax cuts actually get passed is anyone's guess, but it will be an issue on the campaign trail, either because they delivered ...…
United States Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin has a sweet gig. He writes rubber checks to pay the nation’s bills. Yet, somehow, the rubber checks don’t bounce. Instead, like magic, they clear. How this all works, considering the nation’s technically insolvent, we don’t quite understand. But Mnuchin gets it. He knows exactly how full faith and credit works – and he knows plenty more. Read More
In late 2018, the bad economic news just keeps rolling in. At a time when consumer confidence is absolutely soaring, the underlying economic numbers are clearly telling us that enormous problems are right around the corner. Of course this is usually what happens just before a major economic downturn. Most people in the general population feel like the party can go on for quite a while longer, but meanwhile the warning signs just keep becoming more and more obvious. I have been hearing from people that truly believe that the economy is “strong”, but if the U.S. economy really was in good shape would new vehicle sales be “collapsing”?… Read More
The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers - and the generosity of its banks - now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market. Read More
The market is not fair, but it also does not fail to show us what lies ahead if we look at its internal action very closely. This is because these market internals show us what “Big Money” is doing with their money, not what they are saying. Of course, their spokesmen and “talking heads” will try to soothe investors’ fears now. But we should vow to “follow the money”, I’d suggest. See what the Big Money is doing. We want to “anticipate the anticipations” of others (as Keynes said). But as Keynes also said, the market tends to go to extremes. At times, it is ruled by “animal spirits” rather than rationality. And as he would agree, capitalism by its very nature produces big disparities of wealth and therefore under-consumption and over-production. I would say, we are back in the 1920s again, at least in terms of Trump’s economic policies (de-regulation, tax cuts for the rich and tariffs). These are very similar to Coolidge’s main economic policies. The bull market back then lasted 8 years, August 1921 to August 1929. Our has lasted almost nine years, March 2009 to January 2018. So, a bear market is due….
The drastically slowing economy is threatening both corporate earnings growth and the bull market. If GDP grows at an anemic 2% average annual rate through 2019 and a 1.8% rate longer term, as forecasted by the Federal Reserve (per the Wall Street Journal), stock prices are likely to lose steam and tumble. Five famed investors see a bear market around the corner, and recently gave their views on how the downturn will begin and how low it might go, as reported by Money.com, a division of Time Inc. The five include Tom Forester, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Bill Gross and Rob Arnott.
Over the last decade many traditional and new market participants have begun to apply current technology solutions to the municipal market remedying many of the latent problems associated with many aspects of the municipal bond market. The emergence of products like small denomination municipal bonds, for example, is a result of new bond financing platforms. Such products also open up the muni market to middle-income buyers who otherwise couldn't afford the large, $5,000 minimum price in which bonds are typically bundled. The general idea with modern platforms is to leverage technology to make the market more responsive to investors, more financially transparent and ultimately easier for issuers and buyers. Many believe that, in doing so, more people will compete to buy muni bonds and thus the cost of issuing debt will be lower for issuers.
Historically, the worst bear markets happened amid extreme market valuation or lengthy economic recession, or both. After eight years of economic expansion, the US economy is close to the late stage of the current boom cycle. The current high valuation is certainly a cause for concern. While it is hard to predict exactly when the bear market will happen, high valuation, together with a possible economic recession will likely make the bear market more severe when it finally materializes.
For now the focus is on the US central bank. Investors will be looking for clues from its policy statement on Wednesday on when the balance-sheet run-off will start. After a soft patch in the economy earlier this year, Fed officials have hung on to their forecast for inflation to inch back up to their 2 per cent target, a goal they’ve missed for most of the last five years.
In 1952, the songwriters Steve Nelson and Jack Rollins had a successful song named "Smokey the Bear" which was performed by Eddy Arnold. The pair said "the" was added to Smokey's name to keep the song's rhythm. During the 1950s, that variant of the name became widespread both in popular speech and in print, including at least one standard encyclopedia, though Smokey Bear's name never officially changed. A 1955 book in the Little Golden Books series was called Smokey the Bear and he calls himself by this name in the book. It depicted him as an orphaned cub rescued in the aftermath of a forest fire, which loosely follows Smokey Bear's true story. From the beginning, his name was intentionally spelled differently from the adjective "smoky".
The probability of repayment as promised is often determined by an independent reviewer, or "rating agency". The three main rating agencies for municipal bonds in the United States are Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch. These agencies can be hired by the issuer to assign a bond rating, which is valuable information to potential bond holders that helps sell bonds on the primary market.
Sometimes, a strongly-worded denial is the most damning evidence of all that something is seriously wrong. And when things start to really get crazy, “the spin” is often the exact opposite of the truth. In recent days we have seen a lot of troubling headlines and a lot of chaos in the global financial marketplace, but authorities continue to assure us that everything is going to be just fine. Of course we witnessed precisely the same thing just prior to the great financial crisis of 2008. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke insisted that a recession was not coming, and we proceeded to plunge into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Is our society experiencing a similar state of denial about what is ahead of us here in 2018? Read More
Twice in the past the price of silver has risen in a short period to $50. It happened in 1980 during the Hunt brother’s manipulation and again three decades later in April 2011, when the price rose to nearly $50. Prior to the price run up in 2011, I wrote that a move to $50 was more than possible, since it had already occurred and that proved such a move was possible. Something that has happened twice before can certainly occur again. One thing that makes it probable is that there was three times the amount of silver above ground in 1980 than there is today. The six billion ounces that existed in 1980 has shrunk to two billion ounces of industry standard 1000 ounces bars. The amount of world money creation and buying power has increased exponentially over the past seven years. Read More
After the Brexit vote, in early July 2016, ten-year treasury bonds were yielding 1.37%. Today, they’re yielding 2.85% with an annualized return over that period of approximately negative 4.5% annualized. Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and author of “Principles,” explains, “A 1% rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since 1980-1981.” Investors around the globe are asking big questions about what these changes in interest rates mean, and David does a great job of explaining the issues on this episode of Money For the Rest of Us.